India Has More Nuclear Weapons Than Pak, China Far Ahead

New Delhi: Nine nuclear-armed nations including the US, Russia, France, China, India and Pakistan, continued to modernise their nuclear arsenals and several of them deployed new nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2023, a Swedish think-tank said on Monday.

In its analysis, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said China’s nuclear arsenal increased from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024, and it is expected to keep growing.

The report said some 2,100 of the deployed warheads were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles, and nearly all of them belonged to Russia or the US.

However, for the first time China is believed to have some warheads on high operational alert, it said.

The SIPRI said nine nuclear-armed states — the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel — continued to modernise their nuclear arsenals and several deployed new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2023.

Of the total global inventory of an estimated 12,121 warheads in January 2024, about 9,585 were in military stockpiles for potential use, it said.

An estimated 3,904 of those warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft — 60 more than in January 2023 — and the rest were in central storage, it said.

“Around 2,100 of the deployed warheads were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles. Nearly all of these warheads belonged to Russia or the US, but for the first time China is believed to have some warheads on high operational alert,” the report said.

According to the think-tank, India, Pakistan and North Korea are all pursuing the capability to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles, something Russia, France, the UK, the US and more recently China already have.

This would enable a rapid potential increase in deployed warheads, as well as the possibility for nuclear-armed countries to threaten the destruction of significantly more targets, it said.

The SIPRI said Russia and the US together possess almost 90 per cent of all nuclear weapons.

India’s Nuclear Arsenal: A Strategic Overview Amid Regional Power Dynamics

As of mid-2024, India has incrementally enhanced its nuclear arsenal, surpassing Pakistan in the number of nuclear warheads. This shift underscores a significant development in South Asia’s strategic balance, yet China’s expansive nuclear capabilities continue to dominate the regional landscape.

India, traditionally maintaining a credible minimum deterrence policy, has steadily grown its nuclear arsenal to an estimated 180 warheads. This expansion aligns with India’s strategic objective to deter adversaries and maintain regional stability. The Indian nuclear doctrine, which emphasizes no-first-use (NFU) and massive retaliation, aims to prevent nuclear conflict through assured deterrence.

Pakistan, historically engaged in a nuclear arms competition with India, holds approximately 170 nuclear warheads. Since their respective nuclear tests in 1998, both countries have embarked on parallel paths of nuclear development. However, India’s conventional and technological military advancements have prompted Pakistan to enhance its strategic capabilities through tactical nuclear weapons and delivery systems like the Nasr missile.

China’s nuclear capabilities are a significant factor in South Asian strategic considerations. With an estimated 400-500 nuclear warheads, China maintains a substantial lead over both India and Pakistan. China’s strategic modernization program includes the development of advanced missile systems and a credible second-strike capability. This disparity has profound implications for the regional security architecture and necessitates nuanced strategic calculations for both India and Pakistan.

The nuclear dynamics in South Asia are complex and multifaceted. India’s position, bridging the gap between Pakistan and China, presents unique strategic challenges and opportunities:

Deterrence Stability: India’s growing arsenal aims to strengthen its deterrence posture against both Pakistan and China. This dual focus requires a versatile and reliable nuclear force capable of addressing threats from both adversaries.

Regional Arms Race: The continual expansion of nuclear capabilities in South Asia raises concerns about a potential arms race. India’s augmentation of its arsenal could prompt further nuclear developments by Pakistan, which, despite economic constraints, might seek to maintain parity.

Strategic Modernization: India’s investment in modern delivery systems, including ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and the development of the Agni-VI ICBM, reflects its commitment to maintaining a credible and effective deterrent. These advancements are crucial for ensuring strategic stability in the face of evolving threats.

Geopolitical Alliances and Diplomatic Maneuvering: India’s nuclear policy is closely tied to its geopolitical alliances, notably with the United States and other Western powers. These relationships are instrumental in counterbalancing China’s influence and in facilitating India’s integration into global nuclear governance frameworks, such as the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).

India’s nuclear growth, now outpacing Pakistan, highlights its strategic priorities in a region characterized by complex security challenges. However, the overarching influence of China’s nuclear capabilities necessitates a balanced approach to ensure stability and prevent escalation. As India navigates this intricate strategic landscape, its nuclear policy will continue to evolve, guided by the imperatives of deterrence, stability, and regional security. In the coming years, India’s approach to nuclear deterrence will likely remain a cornerstone of its defense strategy, reflecting a commitment to safeguarding its sovereignty and maintaining peace in a region marked by historical tensions and modern complexities.