IMD predicts low-pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal
The IMD noted that under the influence of cyclonic circulation – rotating winds – a low pressure area is likely to form over the same region on May 7. During the next 48 hours, a low pressure area will develop with wind speed ranging from 32-52 kilometers per hour (km/h).
Storm conditions have developed in the Bay of Bengal. The heat capacity of a tropical cyclone in southeast and central Bay of Bengal is about 100 kilojoules per square cm (KJ/cm2). The sea surface temperature across the Bay of Bengal is 30-32 degrees Celsius.
“Cyclogenesis is favored by warmer sea surface temperatures (SST), so it remains to be seen how the pressure will intensify,” Raghu Murdugude, a climate scientist at the University of Maryland and the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, previously told Down to Earth.
The IMD-Global Forecast System (GFS) model has predicted a low pressure area over Southeast Bay of Bengal on May 6, which will intensify into a cyclonic storm near Andaman Islands on May 9. The GFS is the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) weather forecast model.
The storm will move north-northeastwards towards east-central Bay of Bengal over Andaman Islands till May 11.
The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), another weather model developed by NCEP, has predicted a low pressure area on May 7 and a low pressure area on May 9.
Also, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) said that a low pressure area will form over South Andaman Sea on May 8 or 9. By May 10, a depression may develop over South Andaman Sea and south. Southeast Bay of Bengal. A cyclonic storm is predicted to form on May 11.
The system will move north-northeastward and intensify into a cyclonic storm near the Andaman Islands, ECMWF said. Both ECMWF and GCF have forecast severe cyclonic storms in the region.
Also, the GCF data, visualized by Windy software, showed that the wind speed will reach 62 kmph on May 8. It also indicated that another depression may develop over the Indian Ocean and the speed may reach 52 kmph. By May 10, wind speeds of up to 72 kmph over Southeast Bay of Bengal and 70 kmph over Indian Ocean are likely.