The government has said that this year’s monsoon will be normal
New Delhi: India is expected to receive normal rainfall this year during the monsoon season, the Center said today.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said there is a 67 percent chance of rainfall above normal.
“India will receive normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season (June to September), which will be 96 per cent of the long-term average of about 87 cm,” said M. Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.
The government’s forecast comes as a relief to the agriculture sector, which is heavily dependent on monsoon rains for crop production.
On Monday, Skymet, a private weather agency, predicted a below-normal monsoon this year due to the end of La Nina conditions and the possibility of El Niño taking hold.
However, the Met Office said today that there is no “one-to-one” relationship between El Nino and monsoon in India. “El Nino years are not bad monsoon years either,” the IMD said.
“Any adverse impact from El Nino conditions that develop during the monsoon is likely to be countered by the positive impact of positive IOD and reduced snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere,” said M Mohapatra. Director General of Meteorology, IMD.
Senior meteorologists said favorable IOD levels are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon.
El Niño refers to the warming of the waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America. This is related to the weakening of monsoons in India.
The IOD is defined by the difference in sea surface temperature between the western parts of the Indian Ocean near Africa and the eastern parts of the ocean near Indonesia.
Earlier this month, the Met Department said that many parts of the country except the northwest and peninsular regions are expected to experience above-normal maximum temperatures from April to June.
According to the IMD, India recorded its warmest February in 2023 since records began in 1901. However, above-normal rainfall due to seven western disturbances, including five strong ones, kept temperatures under control in March.